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Feel like Job yet?
| Pandemic flu, hurricanes, tornados, floods. Are we starting to feel like Job yet? How seriously should we take the threat that avian flu will become the next pandemic flu? Given the numerous stories of outbreaks so often mentioned in the current news, will this be the next global health crisis? Are concerns about the safety of our food supply justified? There is an important role for congregations in helping support, reassure, and prepare people who are or who feel vulnerable in the face of this possible global health emergency. Often, catastrophic health situations elsewhere in the world do not reach our shores; however, pandemic flu could well be a significant threat to the United States. Most of the health science folks are predicting that it will become a threat to the United States sometime in the next 12-15 months. It is currently a threat to many places in the world, and people who are traveling internationally, particularly to countries where cases have been recorded — China, Thailand, etc. — are currently at a greater risk. Seeking to inform, not to frighten, National Health Ministries (NHM) is developing a new section of the Web site, designed to provide basic information about pandemic flu. This new section of the Web site will also provide resources for use in congregations to help members understand the level of a possible threat and to help them prepare. Often, it is what we do not understand that frightens us most. Keeping Presbyterians up-to-date with reliable information and passing along the preparedness recommendations can help keep members from feeling as though they have no control. NHM will utilize the latest information that is regularly available through the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization, and other reliable sources. Congregations can be a communication network — a wonderful source of information — especially for people who may not be connected to other health information sources. Parish Nurses, Health Ministers, and Health Professionals in the congregations have an opportunity to inform members and allay unjustified fears. The information posted on the Web site is geared to support what congregations are already doing or preparing. | ||||||
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| What is pandemic flu and why should we worry? Basic information A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity and for which there is no vaccine. Pandemic flu can be any type of virulent human flu that spreads easily from person to person, causes serious illness, and can sweep across the country and around the world in very short time. The current worry is that a strain of avian flu with reach pandemic status. [Read more about Avian flu.] Pandemic flu differs from common or seasonal flu — a respiratory illness that can be transmitted person to person. Most people have some immunity, and a vaccine is available. Avian (or bird) flu is not considered a pandemic flu at this time because human-to-human transmission has not been recorded. The H5N1 variant is caused by influenza viruses that occur naturally among wild birds, is deadly to domestic fowl, and can only be transmitted to humans from birds. It is dangerous because there is no human immunity and no vaccine is available. Many scientists believe it is only a matter of time until the next influenza pandemic occurs, and the strains of avian flu now being seen appear to be the most likely culprit. The severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted, but modeling studies suggest that the impact of a pandemic on the United States could be substantial. This would not be the first time there has been a flu pandemic. The United States experienced three flu outbreaks during the 20th century that were categorized as "pandemic flu." These were:
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 This map shows origin points for the 1918 flu pandemic. Image courtesy of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. | ||||||
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| How can a new influenza virus cause a pandemic? Annual outbreaks of influenza result from slight changes/adaptations in the surface proteins of viruses which enables them to evade the immunity humans have developed to other flu viruses from previous infections or in response to vaccinations. When a major change in either one or both of their surface proteins occurs spontaneously, a new virus is created, and no one will have partial or full immunity against infection. If this new virus also has the capacity to spread from person to person, then a pandemic will occur. It is difficult to predict when the next influenza pandemic will occur or how severe it will be. However, wherever and whenever a pandemic starts, everyone around the world is at risk. Without a vaccination or effective prophylactic, minimizing human-to-human contact is the only effective way to diminish the spread and decrease the number of people affected. Thus a major aspect of preparation for a possible pandemic is to identify ways that human-to-human contact can be reduced, should an outbreak occur. Past pandemics have eventually run their course and it is expected that this one will as well. It is important to be as informed as possible and to think about the challenges that will be faced, particularly if a pandemic is severe. One way of predicting the severity of a potential pandemic is to look and graph risk factors. Mapcroft, a company specializing in Web-based mapping resources that contain informationon social, economic, environmental and political issues has developed a map that displays the "Pandemic Risk Index" (PRI). The PRI is essentially composed of three weighted variables:
 on the Mapcroft Web site. For those who want more complete information, other resources on the Maplecroft site also provide great details about the PRI and other significant factors in projecting the severity of the pandemic. | ||||||
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| How can a congregation be an effective communication vehicle to disseminate important information to the members? Having information about the spread of the flu and about congregation members is crucial. NHM has adapted a basic member information form to include data that will be important if a pandemic occurs. The form provided here is designed to include questions that may be more applicable to urban areas and others that are more pertinent to rural areas. It is provided as a downloadable PDF and should be printed, reproduced for each member, completed and stored in a secure (but known) location. Kristine Holmes, R.N., BSN, Parish Nurse, First Presbyterian Church of Howard County has been instrumental in the development of this Congregational Emergency Health Contact Form. Although some might balk at providing the complete information requested on the contact sheet, in a worst-case scenario, a central source of member information could help save lives. We know that during a pandemic, services, deliveries, communication and transportation are likely to be interrupted because the people typically involved in providing services may become ill, or they too may be attempting to minimize human contact. Congregational preparation involves developing "alternative" ways of checking on one another, and identifying who in the congregation has health issues, ongoing treatment and medical needs that will increase their vulnerability. Congregational preparation also includes helping individual members assess their particular situation and decide how their needs would be met during a major service disruption. link | ||||||
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, Oct 25 2007, 4:43 PM EDT
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