Much has been written about major pandemics in the past year. Essentially, major pandemics are overwhelming events bringing widespread illness, death, and economic disruption. The threat of a looming major pandemic has raised awareness of the need for contingency planning at many levels.
Current best estimates (See the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan) suggest that 4.5 to 10.6 million Canadians will become clinically ill (i.e. unable to attend work for at least half a day); 2 to 5 million will require outpatient care; 34,000 to 138,000 will require hospitalization; and between 11,000 and 58,000 Canadians will perish. This will not be business (or healthcare) as usual.
But will a major pandemic really happen?
Indeed, an undercurrent of "preparation fatigue" and dismissiveness has already begun to set in—as would be expected.
What needs to be clearly articulated, therefore, is the fact that virtually all preparations made with respect to an eventual pandemic will serve us well in dealing with other emergencies, small and large alike, ranging from earthquake or flood to economic collapse, bioterrorism attack, or infectious disease outbreak.
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| The natural history of influenza is well known. It is essentially very clear that pandemics recur: another pandemic will come. They usually come in waves over a period of 12 to 18 months, each wave lasting from 4 to 12 weeks.
We don't know precisely when the next pandemic will occur, but early preparation will help with "regular" emergencies as well.
The current strain of avian influenza (H5N1) now present in more than 40 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa appears to be the most likely source from which will arise a next pandemic.
By definition, a pandemic will affect every country, region, and city in the world virtually simultaneously and by definition nobody is immune to it.
Governments and health authorities are preparing at a macro level but an eventual response must by necessity occur at the micro level such that every company, organization, and family is well advised to make preparations as well.
The health impact will be great, but there is no need to become paralyzed with fear: while it is estimated that two to seven million worldwide will die, it remains that over 98% of people are expected to survive.
Doctors and nurses will be busy caring for the very ill. The mildly and moderately ill will likely need to be cared for at home.
The eventual economic and social impact will likely be greater than the actual health impact. New ways of doing business will need to be considered. |
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